Now is Still a Very Good Time to Sell Your Wine Via Online Auction

Market factors and demand/supply forecasts point to consign private collections sooner rather than later

With the coronavirus, stock market volatility and oil price war, as well as the continued tariffs on French and other European wines, collectors are asking us if they can still sell wine online, and if now is still a good time to do so.   

We are admittedly in the business of helping people sell and buy wine, so our bias is to always try to encourage sellers and buyers.  Given world events and the facts and factors we’ll present below, we’d suggest that now is a perfectly good time to sell your wine via online auction, and it is not likely to be better any time soon.

1. WineBid’s global online buyer audience is very active right now:   WineBid has the largest global audience for online wine auctions, and offers the lowest buyer’s premium online.  Thus, even given the coronavirus outbreak, we are seeing our core long-term audience from around the world, including from Hong Kong, Japan and Korea, continue to be very active. We are also experiencing a record number of new bidders each week.    We believe this is due to three factors:

                o The luxury buyer audience is reasonably recession proof, especially for unique items like vintage wine.  There are always buyers for luxury goods, even in volatile markets, especially limited quantity/non-fungible items like vintage wine bottles and cases.

                o People prefer to buy and bid online more than ever, and have goods delivered to their doorstep, especially given the coronavirus, rather than having to go out and sit in crowded, closed rooms like a live wine auction.

                o Many live auctions are having to be postponed, actually creating less supply and opportunity for vintage wine available (and creating more possible supply and less competition/lower prices later in the year)




2.   Contrary to popular belief, there is not much seasonality in the online fine wine market, and given the points above, prices in the fall may be actually softer than now or the summer.

                   o The WineBid audience is actually comprised of a variety of audiences, who are “always on.”  WineBid’s buyer audience are not just “pop and pour” consumers. Our audience includes many diligent long-time private collectors following specific producers and completing verticals, Hong Kong traders supplying wealthy Chinese individuals, restaurants and merchants looking to add specific high-end items to their lists, and of course many individuals and executives seeking birthday vintages and other unique items.   This type of diverse audiences buys year-round online, when they see items that match their unique needs.

                   o Every season is good for selling and buying wine online.  Across the various seasons over the years, we’ve seen the following trends in online wine buying, demonstrating that there is no “best” season to sell wine. In the spring, buyers are restocking their cellars from the winter, where they drank, gifted or sold through a lot of wine. In the summer, there are fewer auctions being held and fewer people shipping wine, so any good inventory on market gets bid up on WineBid, due to thirsty buyers not seeing availability anywhere else. Additionally, and less well known, our overseas Pro buyers are highly active, to supply their business clients with luxury wines for their wealthy clientele, who are on their vacations.  In the fall, buyers are naturally stocking up with back to school, US Thanksgiving,and the upcoming holidays. Some buyers get caught up in post-summer trips to Napa or Europe and bid on producers they experienced. In the winter, buyers are buying for the holidays, including New Year’s Eve and Lunar New Year, for drinking, sharing and sell-through. 

   
   

3. Fine wine values are holding stable to softening, but not rapidly falling like the stock market.  However, they are more likely to continue softening over the medium term, rather than rise quickly again in the fall.

                   o At WineBid, we continue to see a stable sell-through rate and in fact occasional bidding wars on quality wines in the $100-$1,000 range, and strong demand and sell-through on wines >$1,000. We have the largest database and most up to date weekly pricing of fine wines, given our weekly auctions. This enables us to set the highest achievable reserves for consignors, which adjust weekly to market conditions, but in an orderly fashion, as opposed to the highly volatile stock market. The result is wines which may fetch only 1 to a few bids, but at hammers higher than other outlets who set the reserve much lower to achieve sell-

                   o That being said, even before the current stock market dislocation, various outlets were reporting a softening of Bordeaux and Burgundy prices and the popping of the “Burgundy bubble,” suggesting a long term flattening or downward trend for these wines.

                   o Similarly, in the US, Silicon Valley Bank’s annual wine report documented an oversupply of US grapes, and that US wine will be challenged for the next 5 years. While this primarily pertains to low to mid-range wines, we might expect higher end California Cabs to soften, as some consumers move to now much less expensive mid-range wines.

                   o We’ve heard some people argue that 25% French wine tariffs and the possible cancellation of this year’s Bordeaux En Primeur events might create a supply shortage and thus drive up prices.   That may be true, but this is mostly for recent vintage wines and will not materialize in market for 2-3 years. The WineBid auction market is comprised mostly of vintage wines already in the US, whose values and demand are not impacted by tariffs or En Primeur.

Given the above factors, and WineBid’s 25 year experience and data from helping collectors auction their fine and vintage wine online, we know there will always be a healthy demand and good value paid for quality collections of good provenance.   The world is moving to online fine wine auctions, and WineBid supports a 24/7/365 active buyer market who prefers the convenience and safety of online bidding.   Whether you choose to consign now, or cellar your collection for a few more years, WineBid will be glad to work with you to help maximize the value of your collection when the time is right for you.

If you are interested in selling your wine online, contact us at (888)638-8968 or request a wine estimate today.